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On July 14, the Rockies will take a home run swing. They can’t afford to whiff.
The Rockies own the third overall pick in a draft featuring two intriguing starting pitchers and some tantalizing power hitters at the top of the class. This draft gives the self-described draft-and-develop organization a golden opportunity to select a player who can help lift the franchise out of the cellar and become a star and fan favorite.
General manager Bill Schmidt always plays it close to the vest when discussing whom the Rockies might select, but he’s not being coy when he says, “We are simply looking for the best player.”
“That’s what we always try to do,” the executive said. “I think if you deviate from that and try to find a ‘good fit’ or whatever, it doesn’t work out.”
That is true, but the Rockies ultimately must decide whether to invest in a starting pitcher like Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns or a slugger like Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon.
“We’ll end up weighing the college bats vs. the college pitchers,” Schmidt said.
The Rockies are trending toward their second consecutive 100-loss season and light at the end of the tunnel seems a long way off. But the Rockies, realistic or not, believe they can be a .500 team as soon as next season and a playoff contender by 2026.
But Schmidt said that the timing of when the window to win opens won’t be the determining factor on July 14. In other words, if one player seems more likely to reach the majors quicker than another, that won’t sway the Rockies in a major way.
“You have to think short-term and you have to think long-term,” Schmidt said.
Of course, the Rockies’ selection will depend on who’s on the board.
Cleveland has the first pick, and Cincinnati the second. Cleveland is reportedly mulling over Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, Florida first baseman Jac Caglianone, West Virginia middle infielder JJ Wetherholt and Condon.
If the Guardians choose Bazzana, the Reds will likely choose Condon, meaning that the Rockies could choose Burns. But there is no consensus on who’ll be picked first or second.
“I do think the Rockies are going to keep it simple,” MLB.com draft guru Jim Callis said. “If you are drafting purely out of need, you might get yourself in trouble because you’ll pass over a better player.”
However, Callis acknowledged that Colorado’s difficulty acquiring pitching is a major factor.
“The buzz has been, though it’s cooled down a bit, that there are two really good pitchers in this draft, in Chase Burns and (Arkansas left-hander) Hagen Smith,” Callis said. “Everybody knows that it’s hard to get free agents to come to Colorado because it’s hard to pitch there, period. So the Rockies have to develop their pitching.”
Still, Callis sees the Rockies drafting a slugger. After all, the Rockies entered the weekend ranked 24th in the majors in home runs with 75 and 15th in OPS (.701) despite playing home games at Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the majors.
“I like Burns and Smith as pitchers, but I think it’s pretty realistic that at least one of the top power hitters will be available,” he said. “To me, the two best players in the draft are Condon and Caglianone. I love Travis Bazzana, but if I’m looking for guys who can hit 35-40 homers, it’s Condon and Caglianone. I think they are the two biggest impact players in the draft.
“But as much as I like, say, Burns, if Condon or Caglianone are on the board, the Rockies would be making a mistake by taking a pitcher. They might be passing up a better player.”
Baseball America senior writer and draft expert Carlos Collaz said he’s unsure what the Rockies will do.
“It’s hard to say this year because there are so many names being talked about with the two teams in front of the Rockies,” Collaz said. “I could see scenarios where our No. 1 player on the board, Charlie Condon, is available to Colorado at three.
“But I’ve also heard that the Rockies are linked to pitching, certainly more than any other team at the very top of the draft. That makes sense, given what they did last year, picking right-hander Chase Dollander. So it also wouldn’t surprise me if they are the first team to take Burns or Smith.”
Baseball America ranks Smith as its top pitcher in the draft, but it’s very close.
“They are almost interchangeable, and some scouts I’ve talked to prefer Burns and some prefer Smith,” Collaz said. “With Burns, you get a pitcher with maybe more of a complete, four-pitch mix right now. And certainly, he has more present velocity (at 100 mph).
“But with Hagen Smith, I think you have a delivery that’s a little bit better. And the left-handed factor is an element that a lot of teams prioritize. Both pitchers have excellent sliders.”
For several years, the Rockies limited themselves by going after certain types of pitchers. That’s not the case anymore, and it allows the club more flexibility throughout the draft.
“We’re trying to develop more of a contrast approach than five, 10, 12 years ago in this organization when it was (a lot of) sinker-slider,” farm director Chris Forbes told The Post last year in the “Rockie Way” project. “We have to recognize who can pitch at the top of the zone and who has to stay at the corners and the bottom, but ultimately, we’re letting these guys be themselves.”
The Rockies have had the No. 3 pick or higher three times before. In each case, Schmidt was the director of scouting. The results have been mixed.
In 2013, Colorado picked right-hander Jon Gray out of Oklahoma. A 100 mph fastball and biting slider had Gray ticketed for stardom. Despite flashes of brilliance, that never happened in Colorado. He finished his solid seven-year career with the Rockies with a 53-49 record, 4.59 ERA, and a reputation for not pitching well in big games. He signed a free-agent deal with the Rangers in 2022 and won a World Series ring last year.
In 2015, Colorado took shortstop Brendan Rodgers with the third overall pick out of Lake Mary High School in Florida. Though Rodgers won a Gold Glove as a second baseman in 2022, multiple injuries have prevented him from becoming the impact player the Rockies thought he would be. Scheduled to become a free agent after next season, the Rockies will listen to trade offers for Rodgers this summer.
The biggest draft bust in franchise history came in 2006 when the Rockies selected right-hander Greg Reynolds out of Stanford with the second overall pick. Stars like Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer were picked after Reynolds, compounding the failure of Colorado’s pick.
Reynolds’s pro career was plagued by shoulder issues. He pitched for the Rockies at the major league level in 2008 and ’11. He went 2-8 with an ERA of 8.13 in 14 games (13 starts).
Whoever the Rockies select next month, they can’t afford to overthink things. Calis doesn’t think they will.
“They are just going to line it up and take whoever the best guy is. They have to,” he said.
“Now, I could see if they were picking, say, 22nd, then you would have maybe six or seven comparable prospects in mind. Then you might say, ‘Hey, we need pitching, so we’ll take him here.’ But when you have the third overall pick, you just have to take the best player.”
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